El Niño/La Niña Information - National Weather Service
El Niño/La Niña Information
www.weather.govHere are the latest developments on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as of early 2025–2026.
-
ENSO status: Most authoritative sources indicate a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral in early 2025, with forecasts calling for neutral conditions to persist through at least the Northern Hemisphere summer, and increasing odds of El Niño returning later in 2025 or 2026 depending on ongoing ocean-atmosphere signals. For example, NOAA’s Climate.gov ENSO page described La Niña ending and neutral conditions continuing into 2025, with forecasts leaning toward neutral through summer 2025 [NOAA Climate.gov, ]. Recent CPC/NOAA diagnostic discussions also highlighted a path toward potential El Niño emergence later in 2026 under certain conditions [NOAA CPC CPC/NOAA, ].
-
Forecast window: Short-term outlooks typically project ENSO-neutral through mid-2025, with some models suggesting a gradual tilt toward El Niño in the latter part of 2025 or into 2026, depending on SST anomalies in the Niño regions and atmospheric coupling. The CPC/NCEP/NWS discussions explicitly note a higher likelihood of El Niño developing by mid- to late 2026 in certain scenarios [NOAA CPC, ].
-
Global impacts (high-level): ENSO phase shifts modulate winter precipitation in North America, affect Atlantic hurricane activity through multi-season teleconnections, and influence global weather patterns. The neutral phase tends to reduce some of the extreme ENSO-driven swings seen in strong El Niño/La Niña events, but regional impacts can still be pronounced depending on other atmospheric factors [NOAA Climate.gov, ].
-
Regional notes for Southern California: In ENSO-neutral times, you typically see a mix of near-normal winter weather with occasional wetter or drier spells driven by other climate variability factors. As El Niño potential increases later, southern California could see a higher probability of wetter winter conditions if an El Niño develops, but timing and strength remain uncertain until forecasts update [NOAA CPC/NOAA Weather Service guidance, ].
If you’d like, I can pull the most recent official ENSO advisory summaries and produce a concise briefing with a forecast timeline for 2025–2026 tailored to Southern California weather signals. I can also convert the latest projections into a simple one-page summary for quick reference.