Latest News About Aurora Forecast Update

Updated 2026-06-17 22:42

The NOAA Aurora 30-Minute Forecast indicates that aurora viewing probability is tied to the current geomagnetic conditions and OVATION model outputs, updated frequently; if solar wind data are unavailable or contaminated, the forecast uses the Kp index directly with no lead time; the experimental Tonight/Tomorrow Night aurora map relies on maximum Kp forecast between 6pm-6am Central Time and the OVATION model to map auroral oval intensity. These products are published by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and are used to estimate where and how strongly the aurora may appear tonight or tomorrow night; This Experimental product (Aurora for Tonight and Tomorrow Night) predicts intensity and location over North America based on the OVATION model and uses the maximum Kp approach.

Sources

Aurora Dashboard (Experimental) - Space Weather Prediction Center

Aurora Dashboard Information When and where can you see the northern and southern lights also known as the aurora? This page provides a prediction of the aurora’s visibility tonight and tomorrow night in the charts below. The animations further down show what the aurora’s been up to over the last 24 hours and estimates what the next 30 minutes will be like.

www.swpc.noaa.gov

Aurora - 30 Minute Forecast - NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

An estimate of aurora viewing probability can be derived by assuming a linear relationship to the intensity of the aurora. This relationship was validated by comparison with data from the Ultraviolet imager (UVI) instrument on the NASA Polar satellite(2). On occasion, the input solar wind data are either contaminated or unavailable. In those instances, an alternative estimate of the solar wind forcing, based on the current Kp geomagnetic index is used to drive the OVATION model. When this...

www.spaceweather.gov

Aurora - 30 Minute Forecast - Space Weather Prediction Center

An estimate of aurora viewing probability can be derived by assuming a linear relationship to the intensity of the aurora. This relationship was validated by comparison with data from the Ultraviolet imager (UVI) instrument on the NASA Polar satellite(2). On occasion, the input solar wind data are either contaminated or unavailable. In those instances, an alternative estimate of the solar wind forcing, based on the current Kp geomagnetic index is used to drive the OVATION model. When this...

www.swpc.noaa.gov

Aurora for Tonight and Tomorrow Night (Experimental)

This is a prediction of the intensity and location of the aurora borealis tonight and tomorrow night over North America. This product is based on the OVATION model and uses the maximum forecast geomagnetic activity (Kp) between 6pm and 6am US Central Time. The images are updated continuously, with the transition when "tomorrow night" becomes "tonight" occurring at 12:00Z (i.e., within an hour of the end of the 6pm-6am Central Time window that is used here to define "night"). … The OVATION...

www.swpc.noaa.gov