Here’s the latest on the PCE report, based on the most recent publicly reported releases.
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What PCE is: The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, tracking changes in what households buy and how much they pay for them. It’s closely watched for signals on inflation trends and monetary policy .
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Latest headline: In recent months, the PCE inflation rate has moved toward the Fed’s 2% target, with the headline and core readings showing modest deceleration or stability toward that target, though readings can bounce month to month depending on energy, food, and services components .
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Core PCE: The core PCE (which excludes food and energy) often shows a steadier path and is a primary focus for the Fed’s policy stance. Recent releases have shown core inflation hovering near the middle of the Fed’s target range, with readings that have supported expectations for slower policy tightening or potential holds/cuts depending on the broader labor market and other inflation signals .
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Market expectations: Following PCE releases, traders commonly adjust bets on the pace of Federal Reserve rate changes. When PCE trends toward 2% or a bit above, market pricing often shifts to anticipate slower hikes, potential pauses, or modest cuts, contingent on the broader data mix including labor conditions and other inflation gauges .
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What to watch next:
- Sequential PCE readings (month-over-month changes) and the year-over-year rate for both headline and core measures.
- The broader CPI readings and labor market data, since these interact with PCE signals to shape Fed policy expectations.
- Any revisions to previously reported figures, as BEA sometimes backcasts or revises estimates with new data .
If you’d like, I can pull the very latest precise figures (headline and core PCE percent changes, month-over-month and year-over-year) and summarize them in a short table. I can also provide a quick chart visual if you want.
Sources
Follow for live news and analysis of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index. The September reading was released on Friday morning.
www.barrons.comNew federal data showed that inflation edged up in May, but U.S. prices show only modest impact from U.S. tariffs.
www.cbsnews.comThe personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index eased to a 2.1% annual rate in September, close to the Fed's target.
www.cbsnews.comPersonal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
www.bea.govInflation has slowed further and is just a hair's breadth from the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
www.cnn.comThe personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index eased to a 2.1% annual rate in September, close to the Fed's target.
www.cbsnews.comAll Eyes on PCE By Hardika Singh Investors are looking forward to the personal-consumption expenditures price index, which will be released at 8:30 a.m. GDP data out Thursday signaled that... -July 26, 2024 at 07:31 am EDT MarketScreener
www.marketscreener.comPrices rose at an annual pace of 2.6% in July, the same rate as the previous month and in line with economist forecasts.
www.cbsnews.com