Numerical Weather Prediction at 60: A Journey of Innovation at the Met Office
Sixty years ago, the Met Office began a transformative journey that changed weather forecasting in the United Kingdom and beyond. The introduction of numerical weather prediction (NWP) in 1965 became a milestone, opening an era of scientific growth, technological innovation, and steadily improving forecast accuracy. As the 60th anniversary of NWP is celebrated, reflections on its achievements and optimism for its future stand at the forefront.
From Early Experiments to Operational Forecasts
The story of NWP at the Met Office starts in the early 1950s. Forward-thinking scientists, including Fred H. Hinds under the guidance of John S. Sawyer, carried out pioneering forecast experiments using the EDSAC computer at Cambridge. Though the technology of that era was modest, their work established a foundation for subsequent breakthroughs.
By 1959, the installation of the Ferranti Mercury computer—nicknamed ‘Meteor’—at Dunstable marked a key milestone. It became the first computer dedicated to NWP research and experimentation.
“On 2 November 1965, the Met Office produced its first operational computer forecast, a moment that received widespread media attention and signalled the start of a new era in weather prediction.”
The true turning point arrived in 1965 with the English Electric KDF9 computer, known as ‘Comet’, at Bracknell. This achievement firmly positioned the Met Office as a leader in modern meteorology.
Advancing Science and Technology
Over the following decades, NWP evolved rapidly. Major improvements in computing power, data collection, and modelling allowed forecasts to become more accurate, accessible, and reliable, setting standards used worldwide today.
Author’s Summary
The Met Office’s six-decade evolution of numerical weather prediction reflects human ingenuity, technological progress, and an enduring quest for forecasting precision.