Overview: A confidential source familiar with discussions reported to Axios that a proposed plan attributed to former President Trump would end the war in Ukraine by granting Russia control over parts of eastern Ukraine currently not under its control, in exchange for U.S. security assurances for Ukraine and Europe against future Russian aggression. The plan purportedly suggests recognizing Russian influence over Donbas and Crimea, while Ukraine would face conditions on territory and military capabilities.
Ukraine and its supporters will consider this a huge concession to Russia. An official notes that the White House believes Ukraine is likely to lose territory if the war continues and thus it may be in Ukraine's interest to reach an agreement now.
Key disputed issues in talks: who would control areas after the war and how to ensure Russia cannot resume aggression later. The 28-point plan allegedly envisions Russia gaining full effective control over Luhansk and Donetsk (Donbas), a region Ukraine still partly controls, with approximately 14.5% of Donbas land reportedly under Ukrainian control according to external analysis translated by SadaNews.
Proposed post-war arrangement: in Donbas, areas under Russian control would become a demilitarized zone where Russian forces could not deploy. In Kherson and Zaporizhia, the current front lines would largely be frozen, with some lands potentially returned to Ukraine following negotiations. The report notes that the plan includes U.S. security guarantees in exchange for Ukraine making concessions on territory and military posture.
Notes and context: These details are based on an Axios report describing an unnamed U.S. official’s briefing. Subsequent coverage and analyses by other outlets emphasized concern that the proposal could amount to territorial concessions in exchange for security guarantees, and risked legitimizing Russian gains.
Authored summary: The document outlines a proposed peace framework that would formalize Russian control over Donbas and recognize Crimea, while tying Ukraine’s future military capacity and territorial integrity to U.S. security guarantees for Kyiv and Europe.
Author’s summary (120–200 characters): A controversial peace proposal would recognize Russian control over Donbas and Crimea in exchange for U.S. security assurances, with Ukraine potentially losing territory to end the war.