Jersey’s Anti-Trump Vote
New Jersey Democrats, facing a frustrated electorate, tried to make the gubernatorial election a referendum on the president. The key question was whether Donald Trump inspired stronger feelings among his supporters or his critics.
The outcome of the race, which proved less competitive for Republican Jack Ciattarelli than polls predicted, showed that Trump currently energizes his opposition more than his base.
Democrat Mikie Sherrill won a relatively easy victory against Ciattarelli because Democrats and left-leaning independents turned out decisively to vote against the president, surpassing Republican enthusiasm.
Four years earlier, when Trump was out of office and the Republican brand seemed damaged, Ciattarelli came closer to flipping the state due to weak Democratic turnout. That narrow loss once gave Republicans hope for a future win.
This time, however, with Trump back in the White House, New Jersey proved even less competitive than before. Despite low approval ratings for Governor Phil Murphy—recorded at just 35 percent as recently as September—Sherrill’s campaign prevailed comfortably.
Author’s Summary
New Jersey’s gubernatorial results reveal how Trump’s renewed presence in the White House has unified Democrats and independents, limiting Republican chances in the state.